Real Estate Market Updates & Insight June 27, 2023

June 2023 Real Estate Market Update

The more frenetic activity of a typical spring real estate market has certainly hit our area, with buyers out in droves looking for homes. What they’ve found, however, is high competition and scant listings. The region’s low housing inventory has been a constraint that has resulted in fewer closed sales than we’ve seen in recent spring markets.

According to real estate experts, housing supply and interest rates are the defining obstacles for buyers at the moment. On the Eastside, active inventory is only 32% of the 10-year average, and new listings are off 34% year-to-date. This is driving prices up, while interest rates put a damper on what buyers can afford. While recent demand has been strong, experts expect that demand will taper off as interest rates approach the 7% mark.

However, because inventory is so scant, sellers who adequately price their homes are seeing success in this market. As an example, around 44% of properties on the Eastside are selling above their asking price, at an average of 5% over list. Anecdotally, the homeowners who are most likely to sell at the moment are those who purchased before the historic low-interest rates of the pandemic or have paid off their homes and are thus mortgage-free. Buyers in this market also have some negotiating power, having successfully negotiated pre-inspections, homeowner warranties, and seller-paid closing costs to mitigate the high rates.

In King County, with just shy of one month’s inventory, competition in the area is fierce, and buyers will need to be ready to negotiate when the right listing comes along. The county’s median sold price for a single-family home dropped almost 9% year-over-year, from $998,888 in May 2022 to $910,000 this year. However, that’s still an increase from April’s median of $875,000.

Seattle had a similar low inventory, at one month’s supply. The median sold price for single-family homes rose from $886,000 in April to $905,125 last month. While there’s been continued monthly price growth so far this year, May’s median sold price was still down 11.7% from the median of $1,025,500 in May 2022. Although residential inventory is tight, buyers in the city may have more luck with condos, which are both more affordable and plentiful. The Seattle condo market currently has almost two months of inventory and a more reasonable median price of $550,000.

Like Seattle, the Eastside has just one month of inventory at the moment. However, higher interest rates are being felt a little more in this pricier area, as May’s median sold price for a single-family home did not change from April’s median of $1,450,000. This is down 8.8% from the median of $1,590,000 in May 2022. The supply of Eastside condos is lower than the residential supply, with just .8 months’ inventory. At a median sold price of $582,000 last month, condos may be a slightly easier path to homeownership for those searching on the Eastside.

Finally, Snohomish County saw month-over-month price gains in May, landing at a median sold price of $780,000 for a single-family home, up from $767,500 in April. May’s median price was down 8% from $782,000 in May 2022. The county’s more affordable price points may allow for better appreciation in the area, despite the continued higher interest rates that have stifled other local markets. With just two weeks of inventory, the Snohomish County condo market is the tightest regional market at the moment. The median price for condos in the area is $544,900, down less than 1% from $550,000 in May 2022.

As buyers and sellers navigate continued low inventory and high-interest rates, they both must be comfortable negotiating terms to achieve the best possible outcome. Buyers should be ready to move fast and bring as much cash as possible, while sellers should be cognizant of the burden higher rates can create and price their listings accordingly.

If you have questions about these housing market trends or real estate, please give the Kari Haas Real Estate Team a call.


EASTSIDE

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

For BuyersFor Home OwnersFor SellersKari's BlogReal Estate Market Updates & Insight May 11, 2023

May 2023 Real Estate Market Update

As the weather warms, so too does our real estate market, it seems. With dwindling inventory and climbing prices, the housing market is on an upswing, even if it’s a small one. This places sellers back in the driver’s seat, with buyers forced to compete against multiple offers and in the face of higher interest rates than last spring.

The evidence for the market’s positive growth can be found in higher median closed sales prices, an increased percentage of multiple offers, and a higher median percentage paid above the original asking price. At this point, the primary constraint on the market is a lower number of active listings. Many sellers are reluctant to part with their historically low-interest rates from the pandemic years, and with volatile interest rates, it’s an understandable predicament.

The lower number of available homes on the market has contributed to rising prices as buyers compete for a limited pool of properties. This trend often leads to multiple offers and bidding wars, further increasing prices.

For those buyers who do decide to jump into the fray, interest rates remain a key factor in determining their buying power. For the last few months, activity in the market has ticked up when rates dip, but some buyers are willing to face higher interest rates with the plan of refinancing when rates settle.

Even with that in mind, interest rates can have a huge impact on a buyer’s price bracket. For example, the median Seattle home price has declined by about 13% ($133,950) year-over-year. However, the increase in interest rates has offset this reduction. As a result, the median monthly mortgage payment remains around $5,507, which is comparable to the payment amount from a year ago — despite a lower median sold price.

Although home prices in our region may be lower year-over-year, prices have generally been increasing each month this year. In King County, April’s median single-family home price was $875,000. That’s down 12.6% from last April’s $995,000 but up from a median of $840,000 in March. A single month of available inventory means competition for homes is tight throughout the county.

In Seattle, April’s median price for a single-family home was $886,000 — down quite a bit from the same month last year, when the median price was $1,019,950. However, prices were up from a median of $869,975 in March, and a low inventory of just over a month’s supply means demand is still high, and prices are likely to keep inching upward. Condo prices in the city were actually up year-over-year, with a median sold price of $539,000 in April, compared to $512,500 in April 2022.

The Eastside also saw month-over-month price growth in April, with the median price for a single-family home landing at $1,450,000. This is up from $1,411,500 in March. Despite a 15% decrease in year-over-year prices, the current monthly price growth trend is notable. It’s likely we will not see the exponential price increases of the pandemic again anytime soon, making slow, steady growth the norm once again. The Eastside also has about one month of inventory for single-family homes, making it once again a competitive market.

Finally, Snohomish County saw month-over-month price growth in April as well. The median price of a single-family home was $767,500, up from $724,000 in March. With less than one month of available inventory, the housing market in Snohomish County is trending warm-to-hot. Condos in the county had the tightest inventory of any market, with less than two weeks’ supply. That, combined with April’s median sold price of $544,900, makes the Snohomish County condo market a competitive market for buyers to break into.

If you have questions about these housing market trends or real estate in general, please reach out to Kari (206)719-2224


EASTSIDE

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

For BuyersFor Home OwnersFor SellersReal Estate Market Updates & Insight April 28, 2023

Q1 2023 Western Washington Gardner Report

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to Kari Haas (206)719-2224.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The pace of employment growth in Western Washington continues to slow. The region added only 90,340 new jobs over the past 12 months. That said, the annual pace of employment growth was a respectable 3.6%. Three counties have not recovered completely from their pandemic job losses: Whatcom, Skagit, and Snohomish. However, they are short by just under 10,000 jobs, which should be recovered by this fall. Regionally, the unemployment rate in February was 4.1%, marginally above the 3.8% level of a year ago. The employment outlook has improved modestly, with the likelihood of a recession in 2023 down to about 50%. That said, I expect the pace of job growth to continue to slow as businesses remain concerned about a contraction in consumer spending and facing tighter credit conditions following recent bank failures.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

In the first quarter of the year, 10,335 homes were sold. This was down 30.9% from the same period in 2022 and 18.9% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Lower sales activity was more a function of the limited number of homes for sale than anything else. Listing activity in the first quarter of 2023 was down 43% from the final quarter of 2022.

Home sales fell across the board compared to the same quarter of last year and were lower in every county compared to the final quarter of 2022.

Pending sales rose in all but three counties compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. This suggests that sales in the year’s second quarter may tick higher. That said, the region is in dire need of more inventory.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES

Home prices fell an average of 6.9% compared to the first quarter of 2022 and were 1.3% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2022. The average home sale price in the first quarter of 2023 was $692,866.

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, prices were higher in Kitsap, Skagit, Lewis, San Juan, and Whatcom counties.

Even though prices fell in the region, five counties saw sale prices rise modestly from the first quarter of 2023.

It’s worth noting that median listing prices rose in all but two markets compared to the previous quarter. This suggests that sellers are getting a little more comfortable with the market. If listing prices continue to rise, one can surmise that home prices will follow suit.

MORTGAGE RATES

❱ Rates in the first quarter of 2023 were far less volatile than last year, even with the brief but significant impact of early March’s banking crisis. It appears that buyers are jumping in when rates dip, which was the case in mid-January and again in early February.

❱ Even with the March Consumer Price Index report showing inflation slowing, I still expect the Federal Reserve to raise short-term rates one more time following their May meeting before pausing rate increases. This should be the catalyst that allows mortgage rates to start trending lower at a more consistent pace than we have seen this year. My current forecast is that rates will continue to move lower with occasional spikes and that they will hold below 6% in the second half of this year.

DAYS ON MARKET

It took an average of 56 days for a home to sell in the first quarter of this year. This was 32 more days than in the same quarter of 2022 and 16 days more than in the fourth quarter of last year.

King County remains the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 41 days to sell. Homes in San Juan County took the longest time to sell.

Market time rose in all counties contained in this report compared to the same period in 2022 and compared to the fourth quarter.

The greatest increase in market time compared to a year ago was in Grays Harbor County, where homes took an average of 41 more days to sell. Grays Harbor County also saw the greatest increase in market time compared to the final quarter of 2022 (from 46 to 76 days).

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Although the regional economy is still expanding, it shows signs of slowing. With the probability of a national recession this year now fifty-fifty, I do not see any reason for buyers to lose confidence in their housing decisions based purely on economic factors. Sellers appear to be a little more confident in the market, as shown by rising listing prices. Periods of lower mortgage rates and the lack of homes for sale are likely contributors to this. Whatever the case, I am not seeing any signs of panic in the market.

Even in the face of higher financing costs, low inventory levels support home values, and the data suggests that the worst of the price declines are now behind us. The region had fewer sales, modestly lower prices, and higher average days on market, all favoring home buyers. However, lower inventory levels, higher pending sales, higher listing prices, and a higher absorption rate of homes for sale favor sellers. As such, I am moving the needle towards a balanced market, but one that ever so slightly favors sellers.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

 

This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.

For BuyersFor Home OwnersFor SellersReal Estate Market Updates & Insight March 10, 2023

March 2023 Real Estate Market Update

A recent surge in purchase activity indicates that the early spring real estate market is in full swing in our region. Fluctuating interest rates have caused some buyers to converge on properly-priced listings when rates are down, while potential sellers have been hesitant to let go of the historically low mortgages they have on their homes. This has led to a well-known dynamic in our region: not enough inventory to meet the current demand, causing buyers to compete again in multiple offer scenarios. The likely effect of this push-pull will be higher prices in the coming months, despite the constraints of higher (and unpredictable) mortgage rates.

The current interest rate environment is the difference between the level of competition the market is experiencing now and the frenzy of the pandemic market. Buying power is lessened by higher mortgage payments, and with rates still in flux, creative financing is key for many buyers.

That being said, Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner notes buyers are eager to take advantage of brief dips in rates when they appear. “What is interesting is that home prices rose between January and February, which tells me that buyers jumped on the opportunity to take advantage of mortgage rates that dipped below 6.1% five times between mid-January end early February,” Gardner said.

In King County, single-family home prices did rise from $781,098 in January to $800,000, though that’s down 6.7% from $857,750 in February 2022. Condos were also up, with a median price of $468,500 last month compared to $450,000 in January.

Seattle followed the same pattern, with the median price of single-family homes rising from $803,750 in January to $825,000 last month. While that is still down 11% from $925,000 this time last year, interest rates have played a large part in what buyers can reasonably afford. In the last two years alone, the median interest payment for a single-family home has risen 54%, from $3,283 in February 2021 to $5,085 — an increase of $1,802. Despite this, demand is still high, as buyers do what they can to break into the market. In February, 28% of Seattle homes sold above list price, and 53% of listings sold in under two weeks.

On the Eastside, the median price of a single-family home last month was $1,340,000 — down over 21% from a year ago, when the median was $1,697,500. However, February sold prices were up from January when the median was $1,320,000. A sure sign that the Eastside market is becoming more competitive, in the last three months, both the number of homes selling above the asking price and the amount over list price have doubled.

In Snohomish County, the median price for single-family homes fell 7.4% year-over-year to $690,560. Unlike the other regions, that’s also down from January’s median price of $699,000. The higher interest rates could be causing more buyers in this market to pause as they wait for prices and rates to stabilize. The relative affordability of Snohomish County has long been a draw for many buyers, who now may be more sensitive to the fluctuations of the market.

Looking ahead, Matthew Gardner predicts we will see more of the same trends. “Year over year, home sales prices are down, but that isn’t surprising given that a year ago, homebuyers were scrambling to buy in the face of mortgage rates that were about to skyrocket,” he said. “I expect we will see a similar story for the next few months.”

If you have questions about what these market conditions mean for you, please give the Kari Haas Real Estate Team a call!


EASTSIDE

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KING COUNTY

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SEATTLE

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SNOHOMISH COUNTY

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

For BuyersFor SellersReal Estate Market Updates & Insight January 12, 2023

January 2023 Real Estate Market Update

The close of 2022 brought the housing market extremes of the last year into sharp focus. With decreased sales, generally increasing inventory, and lower prices, the December market finally seemed to hit the winter slowdown that has characterized typical market cycles of years past. This stands in contrast to the early months of 2022, which saw sky-high prices and scarce inventory before the threat of inflation and rising mortgage rates caused the shift in the latter half of the year.

Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner commented on this phenomenon. “The local housing market in 2022 ended with a whimper rather than a bang. Overall, the housing market is going to continue falling off the artificial ‘sugar high’ that was a function of the artificially low mortgage rates during the pandemic,” he said.

This is not necessarily a bad thing, as stability in the market could translate to more predictable price appreciation for sellers and better circumstances for buyers to enter the market. In most cases, it’s low- and middle-priced homes that are missing from the market, so many first-time buyers still have plenty of pent-up demand for inventory that meets their needs and financial situations.

Despite a 43.3% drop in closed sales compared to December 2021, last month saw the median price for single-family homes in King County rise to $825,000. That’s up from the median of $810,000 this time last year. This could speak to the lingering effects of inflation on the market or be a factor in the lack of entry and mid-level homes currently available to buyers.

The Seattle market experienced the same pattern, with a year-over-year price increase of almost 5%, from $839,000 in December 2021 to $879,975 last month. Closed sales were down in the city as well, dropping 43.5% from last year to just 394 units, leaving the market with just under six weeks of inventory. The condo market mimicked this trend, with the median price rising to $512,500 last month, up from $490,000 in December 2021. Additionally, Seattle condos offered the highest amount of inventory, with 2.5 months of stock.

Things were a little different on the Eastside, which had experienced perhaps the highest price boom during the “sugar high” of the pandemic. There, single-family home prices decreased around 15% year-over-year, landing at a median of $1,299,000 last month, compared to $1,529,500 in December 2021. This is likely due to higher mortgage rates dampening the buying power of potential homebuyers in the area. Entry-level buyers may be forced to look in more affordable markets for the time being, and December’s 39.5% decrease in closed sales compared to December 2021 reflects this. Interestingly, Eastside condos experienced a sold price increase to a median of $565,000, up from $550,000 last year. This is likely because condos are a much more affordable entry point to the Eastside market and may be experiencing higher demand as buyers tailor their expectations to the current market conditions.

After the ups and downs of the last year, Snohomish County ended exactly where it began, with a median single-family home price of $700,000 — the same as in December 2021. Closed sales in the area were down 38.3%, leaving the market with about six weeks of inventory. Throughout the pandemic, Snohomish County has been a relatively stable market compared to the fluctuations of Seattle and the Eastside, making it a desirable area for first-time buyers and those looking to maximize their buying power.

Looking ahead, Matthew Gardner expects 2023 will see continued price declines. However, “With mortgage rates expected to fall from current levels slowly, sale prices should start increasing again in the second half of the year,” he said.

Gardner continued, “Ultimately, once prices pull back to where they would have been if the pandemic had never occurred, they will start to stabilize and then return to a more normalized pace of appreciation.”

Sellers and buyers have certainly felt the impacts of shifting economic conditions on the housing market. A slower market pace and modest price decreases may be necessary to help reset expectations on both sides and set up sustained future success.

If you have questions about how to make the most of the current market conditions, give Kari a call.


EASTSIDE

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KING COUNTY

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SEATTLE

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

Real Estate Market Updates & Insight December 12, 2022

December 2022 Real Estate Market Update

As temperatures drop and we approach the end of the year, the local housing market has remained somewhat sluggish — an indication of a return to normal seasonality. Slower home sales are not necessarily a bad sign; in many cases, causes as benign as the holidays and inclement weather have pushed buyers off their path, with many choosing to wait for the new year before resuming their searches.

The market is still experiencing high-interest rates, though many experts agree we seem to be past peak inflation levels. While the 30-year interest rate recently dropped to 6.49% from the peak of 7.08%, it remains about a point above the June 2022 average of 5.42%. Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner expects mortgage rates will continue to drop. “Early in the new year, I expect the Fed to start pulling back from their aggressive policy stance, and this will allow rates to begin slowly stabilizing,” he says. Gardner expects interest rates to remain above the 6% mark until the fall of 2023 when they should begin to dip.

Interest rates and weather are not the only things causing buyers to slow their trajectory. The larger amount of inventory in most markets has encouraged buyers to take their time and browse more than they’ve been able to in the past two years. Sellers must now compete with one another for buyers’ attention and offers. That said, listings priced accurately for the market are still attracting showings and strong offers. Plus, many sellers can afford to wait for the right offer.

These trends were reflected across King County in November, with a median sold price of $827,000 for single-family homes. That’s up from $820,000 in October, but the more noticeable change was in the number of closed sales. The county saw a 44.7% year-over-year drop in the number of sold units, dropping from 2,371 closed sales in November 2021 to just 1,312 closed sales last month.

Seattle followed much the same pattern, with a median closed sale price of $905,000 for single-family homes, up from $850,000 the same time last year. Closed sales also decreased from 763 in November 2021 to 423 last month, a drop of 44.6%. Condos in the city experienced an even greater decrease in sales, with a 54% year-over-year dip in sold units.

Prices on the Eastside decreased to a median of $1,316,000 for single-family homes after holding steady at $1,350,000 since August of this year. The inventory for Eastside single-family homes currently sits at 2.4 months. Condo prices in the area rose from $555,500 in November 2021 to $569,500 last month. Eastside buyers may opt for condos as a more affordable choice, given the current interest rates. Condo inventory in the area currently sits at two months.

Last month just 10% of residential units on the Eastside sold above the asking price. More than half the listings on the Eastside experienced price reductions in November as well, with 54% of sold listings having had a price adjustment at some point. Despite these recent trends, it’s important to note that median home prices on the Eastside are up 24% over the past two years — from $1,060,000 in 2020 to $1,316,000 last month.

Snohomish County remained somewhat similar to last month, with slightly less than two months of inventory on single-family homes and a median sold price of $700,000. That’s up slightly year-over-year from $695,000 in November 2021. Condos in Snohomish County had the least inventory of any area, with only 1.6 months’ supply.

Although interest rates are higher than we’ve grown used to over the past two years, the increased inventory means it is still a great time for buyers, especially first-time homebuyers, to enter the market. Resources provided by the Washington State Housing Finance Commission, including its free homebuyer education seminars and its down payment and closing costs assistance programs, can help counter some obstacles that may keep buyers sidelined. A savvy combination of interest rate buy-downs, adjustable rate mortgages, and the possibility of refinancing for lower rates can also help would-be buyers hit the ground running.

If you have questions about what this market means for you, please reach out to Kari for assistance.


EASTSIDE

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KING COUNTY

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SEATTLE

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snohomish december market update

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

For BuyersFor Home OwnersFor SellersReal Estate Market Updates & InsightReal Estate Related November 15, 2022

November 2022 Real Estate Market Update

As the final quarter of 2022 rolls on, it’s clear that these last months will be anything but typical for home buyers and sellers in King and Snohomish counties. In a real estate market that’s been defined by high competition and low supply for the last number of years, buyers and sellers are changing tactics as market dynamics shift due to rising mortgage rates and growing inventory.

While some buyers are waiting to see if rates and home prices drop, others are getting creative with their financing by utilizing buydowns, adjustable rate loans, carrying back second deeds of trust, and closing cost allowances to make their purchases. Sellers have been slower to adjust, with many resisting the idea of lowering their asking price to meet the constraints of buyers dealing with high-interest rates. However, for sellers willing to correctly market and position their listing, successful sales – and even occasionally multiple offers – can still be attained.

Seattle & King County

King County as a whole saw the median price of a single-family home increase from $875,000 in September to $903,000 last month. This was primarily a function of price gains in Seattle, where single-family homes sold for a median of $950,000 in October — up from $900,000 in September. Seattle and King County both have about two months of available supply, which is the most balanced inventory level the market has seen in years. The Seattle condo market has slowed a bit more than residential sales, with over 3 months of inventory and a median price of $522,500 — down from $525,000 year-over-year.

Eastside

On the Eastside, the median price for single-family homes has remained constant, sitting at $1,350,000 for the third month in a row. The average monthly mortgage payment on the Eastside dropped 19% from $9,226 in April 2022 (when the median price was $1,722,500 with a 4.98% interest rate) to $7,430 in August 2022 (with a median price of $1,350,000 at a 5.22% interest rate). However, while the median price has remained the same since August, the 30-year interest rate rose to 6.9% in October. At that rate, the average monthly payment is $8,891 — only 4% off the peak payment of $9,226 in April; this is despite a 22% drop in prices since then.

Snohomish County

Snohomish County saw prices fall slightly from a median of $735,000 for single-family homes in September to $730,000 last month. With less than two months of inventory, that market remains slightly more competitive than the Eastside or Seattle, possibly due to lower prices making it more accessible for buyers as they combat the higher interest rates.

Matthew Gardner’s Take

Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner weighed in on the effect of mortgage rates on buyer behavior. While he believes many buyers may be forced to wait (either voluntarily or not) for interest rates to stabilize, he advises would-be buyers not to wait for prices to bottom out. “Those who hope to pick up a home ‘on the cheap’ are likely in for a long wait,” he said.

For many buyers, the answer to this conundrum is a pivot to adjustable rate mortgages, which are currently set at around 5.9%. With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate currently at 6.9% or higher, adjustable rate mortgages offer a more affordable inroad to homeownership, with the possibility of refinancing to a lower rate in a few years.

 

As we navigate these changing market conditions, Kari can help you assess the best path forward for your home sale or purchase.


EASTSIDE

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KING COUNTY

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SEATTLE

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SNOHOMISH COUNTY

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This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.

Real Estate Market Updates & InsightReal Estate Related October 27, 2022

Q3 Western WA 2022 Gardner Report

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact Kari.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Western Washington labor market continues to expand. The addition of 110,000 jobs over the past 12 months represents an impressive increase of 4.9%. All but seven counties have recovered completely from their pandemic job losses. In total, the region has recovered all the jobs lost and has added an additional 30,000 new positions. The regional unemployment rate in August was 3.8%. This is .2% higher than at the end of the second quarter. That said, county data is not seasonally adjusted, which is likely the reason for the modest increase. The labor force has not expanded at its normal pace, which is starting to impact job growth. Although the likelihood of a recession starting this winter has risen, Matthew Gardner is not overly concerned; however, he anticipates businesses may start to taper hiring if they feel the demand for their goods and services is softening.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

In the third quarter, 19,455 homes traded hands, representing a drop of 29.2% from the same period a year ago. Sales were 15.4% lower than in the second quarter of this year.

Listing activity continues to increase, with the average number of homes for sale up 103% from a year ago and 61% higher than in the second quarter of 2022.

Year over year, sales fell across the board, but when compared to the second quarter they were higher in Mason, Cowlitz, Jefferson, and Clallam counties.

Pending sales (demand) outpaced listings (supply) by a factor of 1:6. This ratio has been dropping for the past three quarters and indicates a market moving back toward balance. The only question is whether it will overshoot and turn into a buyer’s market.

Q3 2022 western WA gardner report - annual change in home sales

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES

Q3 2022 western WA gardner report - mortgage rates map

Higher financing costs and more choices in the market continue to impact home prices. Although prices rose an average of 3.6% compared to a year ago, they were down 9.9% from the prior quarter. The current average sale price of a home in Western Washington is $748,569.

The change in list prices is a good leading indicator and we have seen a change in the market. All but two counties (Island and Jefferson) saw median list prices either static or lower than in the second quarter of 2022.

Prices rose in all but two counties, and several counties saw price growth well above their long-term averages.

With the number of homes for sale rising and list prices starting to pull back, it’s not surprising to see price growth falter. We are going through a reversion following the overstimulated market of 2020 and 2021. There will be some ugly numbers in terms of sales and prices as we move through this period of adjustment, but the pain will be temporary.

Q3 2022 western WA gardner report - annual change in home price

MORTGAGE RATES

❱ This remains an uncertain period for mortgage rates. When the Federal Reserve slowed bond purchases in 2013, investors were accused of having a “taper tantrum,” and we are seeing a similar reaction today. The Fed appears to be content to watch the housing market endure a period of pain as they throw all their tools at reducing inflation.

❱ As a result, mortgage rates are out of sync with treasury yields, which not only continues to push rates much higher but also creates violent swings in both directions. My current forecast calls for rates to peak in the fourth quarter of this year before starting to pull back slowly. That said, they will remain in the 6% range until the end of 2023.

DAYS ON MARKET

It took an average of 24 days for a home to sell in the third quarter of the year. This was seven more days than in the same quarter of 2021, and eight days more than in the second quarter.

King and Kitsap counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 19 days to sell.

Only one county (San Juan) saw the average time on the market drop from the same period a year ago. San Juan was also the only county to see market time drop between the second and third quarters of this year.

The greatest increase in market time compared to a year ago was in Grays Harbor, where it took an average of 13 more days for homes to sell. Compared to the second quarter of 2022, Thurston County saw the average market time rise the most (from 9 to 20 days).

Q3 2022 western WA gardner report - average days on market

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Listings are up, sales are down, and a shift toward buyers has started. After a decade of sellers dominating the market, it is far too early to say that the shift is enough to turn the market in favor of buyers, but the pendulum has started to swing in their direction.

A belief that the housing market is on its way to collapsing will keep some buyers sidelined, while others may be waiting for mortgage rates to settle down. Whatever their reasons, Matthew Gardner maintains that we will see a brief period where annual price growth will turn negative in several markets, but it is only because the market is normalizing. He certainly doesn’t see any systemic risk of home values falling as they did in the mid-to-late 2000s.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

 

This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.

For BuyersFor Home OwnersFor SellersReal Estate RelatedTips & Tricks October 17, 2022

How to Make Moving to a New State Hassle-Free

Moving to a new state is a big adjustment and can be draining. However, having the right information can make it less challenging. Here are some tips from Kari Haas Real Estate Team on how to make moving to a new state hassle-free and help you make the transition as smooth as possible.

Find a Job

If you’re moving to a new state, you’ll need to find a job in your new location. Check out job boards or networking in your new city to find job openings. Your job search should start with finding who needs your skills in the new state. Also, update your resume and cover letter to match the new job market. And if you’re moving to a new state, make sure you find information about the cost of living, as well.

Start a Business

Starting a new business in a new location can be daunting. Here are the steps to follow:

  • Get familiar with laws and regulations. Research the laws and regulations regarding starting a business in a specific state.
  • Choose a business location. Pick a convenient location that suits your budget and needs.
  • Craft a business plan. Create a detailed outline of the services or products you’ll be selling, how to structure the business, your financial projections, and funding options for your new business.
  • Create a plan of action. Craft a plan of action to follow since starting a business can be chaotic. If possible, create a team and delegate tasks.

Also, don’t forget about marketing! A lot of your advertising can be done through social media platforms, which will save you lots of money. However, you should also spend some time on content marketing, which means generating interest in a topic rather than simply advertising a specific product. This is a great way to build your customer base from the ground up, and Cornerstone Content can help you get started.

Adjust to the New Location

When you first move to a new state, it can be difficult to figure out where everything is. Take the time to familiarize yourself with your new surroundings. Explore your new city and find things to do that you enjoy. Consider joining social groups in your new state and making friends. You’ll also need to adjust to the weather in the new location.

Ready To Move?

Moving can be challenging but it’s also an exciting opportunity to start a bold new chapter of your life. Also, you can greatly reduce stress by doing some simple research and preparation beforehand. Research the job market, familiarize yourself with your new setting, and you’ll feel right at home in no time!

 

Kari Haas Real Estate Team exudes a passion for real estate that carries through to every client. Call 206-719-2224

 

Image via Pexels.

This post was originally written by Lisa Walker and was submitted exclusively to KariHaas.com

For BuyersFor Home OwnersFor SellersInvestingReal Estate Market Updates & InsightReal Estate Related October 12, 2022

October 2022 Real Estate Market Update

Increasing listings inventory, lengthening time on the market and a slowdown in home price increases across the Puget Sound region herald a return to normalcy and better opportunities for buyers. According to September data from the NWMLS, active listings nearly doubled from a year ago, with pending sales declining by about 31%.

“The ‘Great Reversion’ continues, with the number of homes in the tri-county market of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties up 106% from a year ago,” says Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. “It’s worth noting that current inventory levels in King and Snohomish counties are still around 13% lower than they were in September 2019 prior to the pandemic-induced market shift.”

While the recent sales data may be pointing to a market shift of a different sort, they may reflect some normal seasonal trends as well. October is typically an average selling month, with November typically performing about 76% as well as an average month, and December and January slowing even further as the holidays and end of year pull some buyers from their home searches.

That being said, last month still saw year-over-year price increases in Puget Sound’s busiest metros, despite some month-over-month price dips. King County single-family homes saw a price decrease from $899,999 in August to $875,000 last month. That’s still up from last September’s median price of $825,600, and condos also saw year-over-year price increases, from $466,501 last September to $483,000 this September. With about two months’ inventory for both housing types, King County buyers are better able to take their time and consider the details of their purchase.

Seattle also saw a slight month-over-month decrease in single-family home prices, from a median price of $927,000 in August to $900,000 last month. That’s still up six percent from $850,000 in September 2021. Conversely, year-over-year condo prices slumped a bit, falling to $499,000 last month from $505,000 in September 2021. Condo inventory has also increased, with buyers benefitting from over two months’ supply. Sellers are encouraged to price wisely and accurately to beat the competition in these conditions.

The Eastside was the only area to see prices stay the same month-over-month, with the median price for a single-family home remaining constant at $1,350,000. That’s an increase from the median price of $1,310,000 in 2021. Active inventory also increased, up to 1.9 months’ supply. The last time the Eastside had this many listings (approximately 1,200) was before the pandemic in 2019.

Snohomish County followed Seattle and King County, with prices dropping slightly to a median of $735,000 for single-family homes last month — down from $749,000 in August. Inventory was slightly tighter in the area, with about 1.75 months’ supply, though it’s still an improvement over the tight inventory at the height of the pandemic.

Many buyers are feeling a bit of a “pandemic hangover” when it comes to interest rates, which may be contributing to the increase in inventory across the region. The conditions that led to the historic low-interest rates were unprecedented, and buyers now need to be willing to consider buying at a higher rate with the goal of refinancing later on if they’re able.

The future of the local market will be dictated by fluctuations in interest rates. If rates increase from the September average of 6.11%, real estate experts expect new pending sales to continue to be 25% – 30% below the prior year in units. Median closed sale prices will roughly decline 10% for each 1% increase in interest rates. However, if interest rates decline from the September average, we can expect pending sales to increase, prices to remain flat, and active inventory to decline more than normal.

Matthew Gardner also points out that home prices “remain positive compared to a year ago.” He doesn’t expect this to change by the end of 2022. By spring, however, Gardner believes “it’s likely that year-over-year prices will start to trend negative. That said, I firmly believe that this will only be a short period of correction, so homeowners in the Puget Sound area shouldn’t be too concerned, especially given that 64% of them are sitting on over 50% of home equity.”

If you have questions about how home inventory or inflation could impact your position in the real estate market, please call the Kari Haas Real Estate Team. 


EASTSIDE

VIEW FULL EASTSIDE REPORT

KING COUNTY

VIEW FULL KING COUNTY REPORT

SEATTLE

VIEW FULL SEATTLE REPORT

SNOHOMISH COUNTY

VIEW FULL SNOHOMISH COUNTY REPORT


This post originally appeared on GetTheWReport.com.